FAO Food Price Index up to its highest level in nearly six years

But slightly less than 1961 (almost 60 years ago) in real terms....

 

My thoughts on Brexit

I've been reading a lot about Brexit recently, particularly related to IT systems and import/export, so I thought I'd share my thoughts/findings.

Britain is no longer a member of the EU. It has left the single market and the EU customs union (although this won't take effect until Jan 1st).

The current negotiations are not about custom arrangements as these will be needed anyway, given that  we have now left the customs union. The main point of the negotiations (excluding fisheries) is to come to a free trade agreement, ie zero or limited tariffs in either direction. Both sides claim to want this but the UK is unwilling to produce products to EU standards with EU labour laws. There is already a EU free trade association, EFTA, which includes non-EU states such as Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. I don't think the UK wants to join EFTA, preferring it's own deal. Which should be easy, as in the words of Michael Gove, [we] “hold all the cards and we can chose the path we want”. Good luck with that.

Imports: The UK proposed and then backed off from full customs control of imports from the EU from Jan 1st. It will now be a three-phased approach to be fully implemented by July.

Exports however will be subject to the new approach from Jan 1st. Here is where we get into alphabet soup. HMRC is working on a system called GVMS (goods vehicle movement system) which is promised for Jan 1st. It will be tested in November. Many people (myself included) doubt it will be ready in time. GVMS requires exporters to collate 3 previously unneeded pieces of paperwork which are then given a unique Goods Movement Reference or GMR to be handed to the port authorities (or ferry operator?) to allow access to the ferries. There are costs to this: HMRC charges an average £34(?) per document.

In addition, each exporter will need an EORI (Economic Operator Registration and Identification). There have been few applications for this so HMRC has assigned them to each business it thinks is an importer or exporter.

And this is just to get your lorry on the ferry. You will need a GMR equivalent, obtained before entering the EU, from one of at least four different IT systems (France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium) in order to enter the EU.

Drivers will need a passport with at least 6 months remaining on it. One or more international driving permits will be needed, depending on the countries travelled through.

Your company may need an ECMT (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) permit to send lorries to the EU. The government is hoping this won't be necessary. If it is, these permits are rationed by the EU and the UK would get only 25% of its requirements, allocated to, and distributed by, the DfT (dept for transport). I can't believe there isn't more in the press about this.

The government recently produced a 206 page document called The Border Operating Model. It covers imports and exports but is surprisingly thin on details when it comes to IT requirements. It does propose that companies either train someone in doing customs paperwork or farm it out to a customs agent (if there are any free!). All at a cost of course. Didn't Brexiters promise friction-free borders?

Talking of costs, the government has announced: "Unprecedented £705 million investment will fund new infrastructure, jobs and technology at GB-EU border". This is for border control posts, only needed for Brexit. I'm not sure how it qualifies as an investment though. More like an unnecessary expense. Note also the use of the phrase GB-EU border. Great Britain excludes N.Ireland and all bets are off as what will happen on these three borders: GB-NI, NI-Ireland, GB-Ireland. And any reference to the UK above might mean just GB.

I seem to think NI is remaining in the EU or at least the customs union and single market. It's complicated. And we haven't even talked about immigration and freedom of movement yet!

That's all for now.

CV19: UK v Italy v USA: downward trend continues

Thankfully, the trend in daily deaths continues downwards for all three countries. USA however is approaching 100,000 deaths total.

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Source: Our World in Data

CV19: UK v Italy v USA

OK, this graph is from the Our World in Data website and shows death per million of population. You can see the UK trailing Italy by about two weeks. US deaths aren't as high (per million) but are much higher in total (83,491 as of today).

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Link: Our World in Data (thanks Rod!)

CV19: UK v Italy - forget the 2 week lag

This week the UK revised its numbers: it's now including care home deaths as well as hospital deaths. I've changed the graph to show total deaths by date, no two week lag. You can see the latest numbers show the UK is catching up with Italy and possibly overtaking it?

(obsolete - see below)

Latest graph with smoothed UK data (in red), Italy in blue:

(click to enlarge)

Data source: Worldometer

CV19: UK v Italy - new graph format

Sadly, the UK seems to be overtaking Italy in CV19 deaths. Albeit with a 2 week time lag. I changed to a bar chart, hopefully easier to see what is going on. UK in blue.

(click to enlarge)

Data source: Worldometer

CV19: UK still tracking Italy...

One week later and the UK is still tracking Italy (with a 2 week time lag). It is uncanny how close these two lines are (blue line is UK, red line is Italy) ...

(click to enlarge)

Data source: Worldometer

CV-19: Italy v UK again

So, one week since the last report on this and the UK is still tracking Italy (with a 2 week time lag). The graph says it all (blue line is UK, red line is Italy) ...

(click to enlarge)

Source: Worldometer

CV-19: times to double

No graphs today, just these stats:

• global deaths, time to double = 6 days (same as 10 days ago) 
• global cases, time to double = 8 days (up from 6, 10 days ago) 

These are scary numbers but the increasing time to double for cases is a positive sign.

Italy and Spain both seem to have peaked in new cases and deaths. Let's hope so.

Source: Worldometer

A hand-painted picture from Italy

A poster made by Sonia's nephews, Emilia 7 and Alberto 12, to hang on
the balcony of their apartment. It means "All shall be well" :)

They are delighted that school is now closed for the remainder of
this (school) year. Hopefully will re-open in September. Their parents
are not so delighted!

(click to enlarge)

CV-19: Comparing Italy to UK again

This graph shows where the UK is at compared to Italy, normalised/offset by a 2 week gap when numbers were similar (March 7th Italy v March 21st UK). The gap seems to be closing, UK is at almost 90% of Italy's numbers. As of today, Italy has 14,681 CV-19 deaths. As my friend John K says, we are two weeks behind Italy...

(click to enlarge)

Data from: Worldometers

CV-19 global picture - 6 days later...

From March 24th:
>> The number of CV-19 cases crossed 400,000 on March 24th ... with a six day time to double, global cases could reach 800,000 and deaths 35,000 on March 30th. <<

Now on March 30th, deaths have indeed doubled and cases are up by 84% [Edit: cases reached 800,000 a day later, March 31st].

6 days ago:

And 6 days later, March 30th:

So, in 6 days time, April 5th, will there be almost 1.5 million cases? And 70,000 deaths?

CV-19: Comparing Italy March 7th to UK March 21st

This graph normalises Italy and UK on the dates that they both had 233 deaths. And then proceeds from there. Italy's death rate is, sadly, increasing more rapidly. But why? Two possible reasons:

• Italian cigarette consumption per capita is 80% higher than the UK
• Italy's population is older: median age 45.5 versus 40.5 in the UK

[Italy's total deaths today reached 10,023]

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Italy v UK comparison

CV-19 cases and deaths were more or less identical in Italy on March 7th and in the UK 14 days later. See graph:

(click to enlarge)

But look whats happens to Italy 14 days later! (March 21st). Deaths are up by a factor of 20 and cases up by a factor of 10. Note the bar for the March 7th deaths at 233 is so small it's barely visible:

(click to enlarge)

Scary stuff. What will the UK look like on April 4th?

CV-19 cases hits 500,000

March 26th: Up by 100,000 from 2 days ago. Deaths up by almost 5,000.

CV-19 cases hits 400,000

The number of CV-19 cases crossed 400,000 on March 24th. And sadly, the number of cases and deaths increased in Italy again, but to less than record levels. And with a six day time to double, global cases could reach 800,000 and deaths 35,000 on March 30th...

Link: Worldometer

Italy: fall in new CV-19 cases and deaths

For three days in a row. Lockdown takes time to work because of the up-to 14 days needed for symptoms to show. So this is encouraging.

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Link: Worldometers