An academic paper published in the Journal of Power Sources [PDF] outlines a novel approach to renewable power generation. Instead of allowing for load + a peak margin, their least-cost analysis proposes a massive overbuild of renewables (290% of average load for 99.9% renewable power or 180% overbuild for 90% renewable). They also consider a 30% scenario.
They calculate the 99.9% scenario would cost the same as or less than conventional power generation by 2030. The authors argue that current coal-fired plants at 40% efficiency are the equivalent of a 250% overbuild.
Ars Technica also has an article here.
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