Crude Oil Prices ~ 1861 - 2011

(click on image to enlarge)

Red line: 2011 dollars per barrel; blue line: nominal. 

 Oil prices used by year:

• 1861-1944 WTI
• 1945-1983 Arabian Light
• 1984-2011 Brent

Grid of 2030: 99.9% renewables?

An academic paper published in the Journal of Power Sources [PDF] outlines a novel approach to renewable power generation. Instead of allowing for load + a peak margin, their least-cost analysis proposes a massive overbuild of renewables (290% of average load for 99.9% renewable power or 180% overbuild for 90% renewable). They also consider a 30% scenario.

They calculate the 99.9% scenario would cost the same as or less than conventional power generation by 2030. The authors argue that current coal-fired plants at 40% efficiency are the equivalent of a 250% overbuild.

Ars Technica also has an article here.

CO2 November 2012

November CO2:

• 2011:  390.2 ppm
• 2012:  392.8 ppm

Increase of 0.7%

(click for larger image)

Oil - November update

This picture from Stuart Sandiford's blog shows "all liquids" (crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels) approximately flat for 2012.

At around 90 Mb/d, this is a lot higher than ASPO's last prediction (made in 2008) of  77.5 Mb/d (and falling).

CO2 October 2012

Here are the latest CO2 numbers from the NOAA:

• October 2012: 391 ppm
• October 2011: 389 ppm

An increase of about 0.5% per year.

UN Food Numbers - December 2012

Cereal production estimates for 2012 have been revised downwards this month by 2 million tonnes (Mt) to 2280 Mt. This is down almost 3% from last year's record but is essentially equal to the four year average.

The food price index is down 1.5% this month and is 7% lower than last year's average.

Note that at 211, the index is at more than twice the 2002-2004 average (= 100).

The next UN report is due out on February 7th 2013.